Real State of Real Estate 2015
The Real State of Real Estate for 2015
It has been exactly 8 years since I last sent out my personal in-depth analysis of what really happened to the single
family homes listed in the Upstar Association of REAL TORS Multiple Listing Service, specifically Allen County. In
the years prior to 2006 my figures and the MLS had been different. However, in March of2006, after receiving my
RSofRE letter for a number of years, the MLS Director changed the MLS’ method of calculation to the way I had
been doing it and now both our statistics are nearly identical. And no, I did not get a trophy. Any/all numbers shown
in red are adjusted to represent 2014 dollars based on the cost-of-living/inflation index.
The 2014 Allen County Real Estate Market with Comparisons to 2006.
Number of homes listed for sale; 7429 (14,336 in 2006)
Number of homes sold and closed; 5,080 or 68.38% (8,118 or 56.63% in 2006)
Number of homes that failed to sell and close as of December 31,2014; 2349 or 31.62% (6,218 or 43.37% in 2006)
( includes pendings, expireds, withdrawns and canceleds )
Average days on market (DOM) if you combine solds and failed to sell; 111 days (195 in 2006) (My average DOM
for 2014 is 62 and my median is 25)
Average list price; $145,563. In 2006 it was $153,564.
Average sales price; $133,683. In 2006 it was $137,677. This means a net decline in average sales price of 2.9%. And
all you hear about on the news and from the REALTORS is about the increase in property values. It’s not true.
Average list price/sales price ratio; 91.8% (87.90% in 2006) (My personal list price/sales price ratio is 96.8%)
What was the average for the approximately 1184 agents in the Allen County?
Number of listings per agent; 6.27
Number of closings per agent (counting each house as both a listing side and/or a sale side); 8.58
Dollar volume per agent (counting each house as both a listing side and/or a sale side); $1,147,000.
Average income per agent (assuming a 3% gross commission per side, a 6% franchise fee off the top ofthe 3%
and a 60/40 split with the office, 60% going to the agent, minus $1,254. in annual REALTOR fees); $18,153.24
If the average agent worked 50 hours a week and 50 weeks a year, their earnings were $7.26 an hour, gross.
In 2006 the average agent had $1,441,539. in sales and grossed $23,186.18 or $9.28 an hour.
My first $1,000,000. sales year was 1975 and is equal to $4,452,830. in today’s dollars.
My largest single sale of $1,275,000. was in 1986 and is equal to $2,760,550. in today’s dollars.
How can people afford these expensive homes and big mortgages?
Remember any/all numbers shown in red are expressed in 2014 dollars. In 1981 the interest rate for a 30 year
mortgage peaked at about 14.00% + 2 points, and a $100,000. mortgage payment was $1184.87 P&I ($3106.99).
In 2006 the rate was 6.25 and 0 points, and the payment was $615.72 ($722.93). Today’s rate is 4.25% and 0 points
and the payment is $491.94. Using the AIER Cost-of-Living Calculator, the 1981 payment in today’s dollars would
be $3106.99 and at 4.25% can pay for a $631,579. mortgage. (The reality is that $1.00 in 1981 is worth $2.62 today,
but with the lower rates it can buy 6.3 times the debt. And, $1.00 in 2006 is worth $1.17 today, but with today’s rates
can buy 1.47 times the 2006 debt.) That is why many Home Buyers will pay 20% more to get a new home.
Odds that a home buyer attending an Open House will buy that home; 250-to-l.
Century 21 Bradley Realty is the #2 Century 21 real estate office in the United States for number of homes SOLD.
Percentage of For Sale By Owners that eventually list with a REALTOR; 89%.
With a population of 256,496 Fort Wayne is now the 76th largest city in the United States.
Allen County is the 2nd largest county in land area, east of the Mississippi River.
The average person falls asleep in seven minutes, which means you can read this letter after you are in bed.
The price of a gallon of gas in February 2006 was $2.25 ($2.64 in today’s dollars).
IF YOU’RE THINKING OF BUYING ANYTHING – CALL ME.
Do not call the agent or company on the sign or the ad. By law, that agent is
representing the seller and is required to get the highest price possible for that home.
By having me represent you as your Broker, my job is to get that home for you at the
best possible price and terms that are in your favor, and it does not cost you anything
for me to do that. I can also represent you in negotiating with a for-sale-by-owner at
no cost to you. And, I am an excellent negotiator.
IF YOU’RE THINKING OF SELLING – CALL ME.
I have developed a multi-media marketing plan to sell your home in the
least amount of time to get you the maximum price for your home.
IF YOU’RE THINKING OF BUILDING A NEW HOME – CALL ME.
I can assist you in the location, site planning, design, financing and builder selection.
There is no charge to you, and in the long run it will save you money. There is not
one single agent at Century 21 Bradley Realty who knows more about new home
planning, construction and development than I do, NOT ONE.
ARE YOU OR ANYONE YOU KNOW IN THE 62+ AGE GROUP?
I have spent a lot of time reviewing the updated guidelines for Reverse
Mortgages and find that they are worth looking at for the purchase of a
home. They have changed the age guidelines, made allowances for
surviving spouses and can allow you to move into a home that you may
have thought you could not afford while retaining much of the equity
from your present home. Call me and we can discuss the program and
how it would benefit you or someone you know. It just makes good sense.
IT’S WHAT I DO.
The majority of my business comes from people referring me to other
people. And, my income comes from successfully completing those
transactions. So, if you or anyone you know is thinking of buying, selling
or building, please call. And, if you need advice on anything involving real
estate such as re-financing, area property values, remodeling, investing or
something legal, call me and I will give you some guidance. That’s free.